Analyse des cotes — 08/09/2026

STRATÉGIES

Performance historique — bankroll exemple : 1000€ (modifier BANKROLL dans analyse.py)

id	Stratégie	filtre	n	hits	taux	cote moy	ROI%	Kelly	K/4	Mise (1000€)
S1	Football – nul sur très gros favori	foot, cote fav ≤1.25, cote N ∈ [5.00–6.00] → parie N	117	25	21.4%	5.57	+19.1%	4.2%	1.0%	10€
S2	Baseball Winamax – outsider	baseball Winamax, cote fav ∈ [1.71–1.85] → parie l'outsider	69	39	56.5%	1.96	+10.5%	11.1%	2.8%	28€

Guide de mise Fibonacci avancer 1 cran après une perte · reculer 2 après un gain · stop au niveau 6

Strat	Unité	N1 (×1)	N2 (×1)	N3 (×2)	N4 (×3)	N5 (×5)	N6 (×8)
S1	10€	10€	10€	21€	31€	52€	83€
S2	28€	28€	28€	55€	83€	138€	221€

BASEBALL

Par cote favori

cote favori	n	fav%	1%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_out	roi_1	roi_2
1.00-1.25	1	100%	100%	0%	1.25	3.10	1.25	3.10	+25.0	-100.0	+25.0	-100.0
1.26-1.50	72	62%	53%	47%	1.42	2.61	1.82	2.21	-11.1	-2.3	-4.0	+4.3
1.51-1.75	178	51%	48%	52%	1.63	2.11	1.83	1.91	-17.6	+4.5	-11.5	-1.3
1.76-1.99	58	50%	59%	41%	1.80	1.93	1.86	1.87	-9.8	-3.6	+9.1	-22.5
TOTAL	309	53%	52%	48%	1.61	2.20	1.83	1.98	-13.9	+2.4	-5.7	-4.1

Par pays

pays	n	fav%	1%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_out	roi_1	roi_2
États-Unis	186	55%	50%	50%	1.64	2.24	1.84	2.04	-9.2	-0.2	-8.0	+1.8
Japon	69	54%	46%	54%	1.56	2.10	1.82	1.85	-16.1	-2.6	-15.8	-0.8
Corée du Sud	36	42%	64%	36%	1.58	2.08	1.91	1.75	-34.2	+21.2	+21.9	-36.9
?	18	56%	61%	39%	1.59	2.38	1.66	2.30	-11.7	+5.8	+1.7	-10.4
TOTAL	309	53%	52%	48%	1.61	2.20	1.83	1.98	-13.9	+2.4	-5.7	-4.1

FOOTBALL

Par cote favori

cote favori	n	fav%	n_1f	1%_1f	N%_1f	2%_1f	n_2f	1%_2f	N%_2f	2%_2f	cm_fav	cm_N	cm_out	roi_fav	roi_N	roi_out
1.00-1.25	187	78%	158	80%	15%	5%	26	0%	31%	69%	1.16	7.86	10.52	-10.2	+30.2	-55.0
1.26-1.50	392	69%	288	69%	18%	12%	104	12%	21%	67%	1.39	4.62	5.79	-4.7	-11.5	-29.1
1.51-1.75	369	56%	276	55%	24%	21%	92	23%	17%	60%	1.62	3.82	4.22	-8.5	-15.0	-10.9
1.76-1.99	390	46%	267	48%	26%	27%	123	28%	30%	42%	1.87	3.42	3.50	-14.7	-7.0	-4.9
2.00+	609	43%	346	43%	32%	25%	262	32%	25%	43%	2.21	3.23	2.84	-4.3	-6.6	-20.8
TOTAL	1947	55%	1335	57%	24%	19%	607	25%	24%	51%	1.76	4.11	4.56	-3.6	-0.9	-4.1

Par pays

pays	n	fav%	1%	N%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_N	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_1	roi_N	roi_2
Europe	298	63%	54%	17%	29%	1.64	5.74	2.55	4.48	4.86	+4.2	+36.7	-23.3	+41.8
?	256	48%	35%	36%	29%	1.80	4.40	2.51	3.95	3.68	-13.5	-12.6	+43.4	+6.4
International	81	59%	62%	14%	25%	1.74	4.41	1.86	3.94	4.29	+3.3	+14.8	-46.5	+5.9
Argentine	73	48%	51%	23%	26%	1.98	4.04	2.16	3.03	3.86	-5.2	+9.4	-29.5	+0.5
Angleterre	66	65%	44%	15%	41%	1.73	4.52	2.40	4.06	3.86	+12.9	+5.3	-38.6	+57.9
États-Unis	64	52%	52%	30%	19%	1.85	3.41	2.07	3.78	3.18	-4.8	+6.8	+12.3	-40.3
Équateur	53	49%	49%	21%	30%	1.87	4.11	2.15	3.41	3.83	-8.2	+5.6	-29.1	+15.6
Brésil	51	43%	39%	37%	24%	1.81	4.17	2.08	3.51	3.89	-22.1	-18.3	+30.8	-8.5
Colombie	49	51%	43%	33%	24%	1.81	4.27	2.10	3.41	3.99	-7.4	-10.0	+11.5	-2.3
Corée du Sud	41	32%	24%	44%	32%	1.94	3.54	2.50	3.28	2.97	-38.5	-38.9	+44.1	-5.7
Roumanie	36	50%	64%	28%	8%	1.92	3.69	2.18	3.39	3.42	-4.1	+39.5	-5.9	-71.5
Allemagne	36	53%	42%	14%	44%	1.76	4.80	3.57	4.40	2.95	-6.8	+48.7	-38.9	+30.9
Bulgarie	35	66%	51%	20%	29%	1.62	5.39	2.91	3.88	4.03	+6.5	+49.5	-22.4	+15.3
Mexique	35	29%	31%	29%	40%	1.80	4.02	2.24	3.79	3.57	-48.6	-29.5	+8.3	+42.9
Chine	34	56%	47%	26%	26%	1.82	3.67	2.11	3.89	3.38	+1.5	-0.7	+3.0	-10.6
Suède	33	58%	39%	21%	39%	1.65	4.37	2.52	4.10	3.49	-5.3	-0.7	-13.1	+37.5
Chili	32	50%	50%	19%	31%	1.85	3.81	2.16	3.61	3.50	-7.3	+7.9	-32.3	+9.5
France	31	42%	29%	29%	42%	2.00	3.64	2.55	3.57	3.09	-16.1	-25.9	+3.7	+29.7
Paraguay	29	38%	48%	28%	24%	1.97	3.57	2.36	3.21	3.18	-25.3	+13.7	-11.5	-23.2
Japon	29	52%	41%	28%	31%	1.91	3.63	2.82	3.40	2.71	-1.2	+16.9	-6.1	-15.8
Portugal	28	57%	54%	29%	18%	1.77	5.36	2.61	4.17	4.52	+1.2	+39.7	+19.1	-19.3
Islande	27	56%	37%	26%	37%	1.76	3.52	2.26	4.25	3.02	-2.5	-16.3	+10.1	+11.8
MultiFoot	27	56%	63%	15%	22%	1.30	7.59	1.37	16.29	7.51	-27.8	-13.5	+141.3	+67.0
Espagne	27	63%	59%	18%	22%	1.89	4.85	2.39	4.13	4.34	+19.0	+41.8	-23.5	-3.5
Norvège	27	70%	48%	4%	48%	1.62	4.72	2.38	4.39	3.96	+14.1	+14.7	-83.7	+90.5
Pologne	26	54%	46%	19%	35%	1.97	3.38	2.15	3.41	3.20	+6.1	-0.9	-34.4	+10.8
Suisse	26	54%	42%	23%	35%	1.77	3.58	2.16	3.89	3.19	-4.5	-8.5	-10.1	+10.2
Serbie	23	48%	52%	30%	17%	1.70	5.82	2.22	4.46	5.30	-18.8	+15.7	+35.6	-7.8
Finlande	23	61%	44%	26%	30%	1.80	3.73	2.47	3.74	3.07	+9.4	+7.2	-2.5	-6.7
Rép. Tchèque	23	56%	48%	17%	35%	1.76	4.40	2.35	3.83	3.81	-0.7	+12.3	-33.5	+32.5
Danemark	22	68%	54%	27%	18%	1.77	3.85	2.54	3.87	3.08	+20.5	+38.3	+5.5	-43.9
Canada	21	43%	48%	29%	24%	1.77	3.89	2.37	3.75	3.29	-24.0	+12.9	+7.1	-21.6
Pays de Galles	20	75%	30%	20%	50%	1.68	4.79	2.84	4.17	3.63	+26.3	-14.7	-16.5	+81.4
Belgique	19	74%	63%	10%	26%	1.73	4.32	2.11	3.93	3.94	+27.6	+33.4	-58.6	+3.6
Arabie Saoudite	18	56%	39%	39%	22%	1.68	4.75	2.95	4.33	3.48	-6.6	+14.7	+68.3	-22.6
Lettonie	18	83%	61%	0%	39%	1.61	6.31	2.96	5.18	4.96	+34.3	+80.7	-100.0	+93.0
Italie	18	67%	44%	6%	50%	1.73	5.04	2.81	3.90	3.96	+15.0	+24.7	-78.3	+98.2
Autriche	16	69%	44%	25%	31%	1.76	4.07	2.42	3.84	3.41	+20.8	+5.7	-4.0	+6.5
Pays-Bas	16	62%	31%	12%	56%	1.52	5.45	3.08	4.87	3.89	-4.9	-3.7	-39.1	+118.8
Ukraine	15	47%	47%	27%	27%	1.78	4.95	3.34	3.82	3.39	-17.2	+56.0	+1.8	-9.7
Écosse	15	60%	53%	13%	33%	1.65	4.78	2.52	4.28	3.91	-1.0	+34.6	-42.9	+30.3
Hongrie	14	43%	57%	21%	21%	1.98	3.21	2.40	3.54	2.79	-15.1	+37.0	-24.2	-40.1
Slovénie	14	29%	29%	43%	29%	1.69	4.04	2.35	3.77	3.38	-51.7	-32.9	+61.6	-3.3
Afrique du Sud	13	62%	46%	38%	15%	1.79	5.39	2.92	3.72	4.26	+10.0	+34.8	+42.9	-34.5
Estonie	13	46%	62%	15%	23%	1.61	4.62	2.75	4.37	3.48	-25.8	+69.0	-32.7	-19.8
Lituanie	12	67%	58%	8%	33%	1.81	4.05	2.12	3.62	3.73	+20.6	+23.9	-69.8	+24.5
Irlande	11	18%	27%	64%	9%	1.71	4.19	1.98	3.82	3.92	-68.9	-46.0	+143.3	-64.3
Croatie	11	64%	64%	18%	18%	1.62	5.68	2.21	4.41	5.09	+3.4	+40.8	-19.8	-7.4
Turquie	11	54%	54%	18%	27%	1.72	3.95	2.38	3.60	3.30	-6.0	+29.6	-34.5	-10.0
Slovaquie	10	50%	30%	40%	30%	1.62	4.59	2.12	4.12	4.08	-19.1	-36.3	+64.8	+22.5
Bosnie-Herzégovine	7	71%	71%	29%	0%	1.65	6.16	1.65	4.37	6.16	+18.0	+18.0	+24.9	-100.0
Grèce	3	100%	33%	0%	67%	1.35	6.83	5.11	4.45	3.07	+34.7	+70.4	-100.0	+104.4
Géorgie	2	0%	50%	50%	0%	1.86	4.88	1.89	4.20	4.85	-100.0	-5.8	+110.0	-100.0
Azerbaïdjan	2	100%	0%	0%	100%	1.33	6.25	6.25	4.75	1.33	+33.5	-100.0	-100.0	+33.5
Luxembourg	2	100%	100%	0%	0%	1.52	4.85	1.52	3.80	4.85	+52.0	+52.0	-100.0	-100.0
Israël	2	100%	50%	0%	50%	1.40	5.65	3.48	4.50	3.56	+39.5	+74.2	-100.0	+78.0
Maroc	1	100%	100%	0%	0%	1.98	3.70	1.98	2.75	3.70	+98.0	+98.0	-100.0	-100.0
Irlande du Nord	1	100%	100%	0%	0%	1.48	4.70	1.48	4.40	4.70	+48.0	+48.0	-100.0	-100.0
Emirats Arabes Unis	1	100%	100%	0%	0%	1.96	3.10	1.96	3.50	3.10	+96.0	+96.0	-100.0	-100.0
TOTAL	1947	55%	47%	24%	29%	1.76	4.56	2.41	4.11	3.91	-3.6	+12.3	-0.9	+14.5

RUGBY_13

Par cote favori

cote favori	n	fav%	n_1f	1%_1f	N%_1f	2%_1f	n_2f	1%_2f	N%_2f	2%_2f	cm_fav	cm_N	cm_out	roi_fav	roi_N	roi_out
1.00-1.25	16	69%	9	67%	11%	22%	7	29%	0%	71%	1.14	27.56	4.79	-21.4	+72.3	+19.7
1.26-1.50	18	72%	9	78%	0%	22%	9	33%	0%	67%	1.36	22.22	2.88	-2.1	-100.0	-19.9
1.51-1.75	15	40%	4	25%	0%	75%	9	44%	0%	56%	1.60	17.96	2.19	-35.9	-100.0	+2.3
TOTAL	49	61%	22	64%	4%	32%	25	36%	0%	64%	1.36	22.66	3.34	-16.6	-53.8	+9.1

Par pays

pays	n	fav%	1%	N%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_N	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_1	roi_N	roi_2
International	26	65%	50%	0%	50%	1.40	2.93	2.05	22.73	2.28	-8.4	+2.7	-100.0	+14.0
Europe	16	62%	50%	0%	50%	1.34	3.73	2.57	21.21	2.33	-16.4	+28.5	-100.0	+16.7
?	7	43%	57%	14%	29%	1.27	4.07	1.97	25.71	3.37	-45.5	+12.8	+267.3	-3.8
TOTAL	49	61%	51%	2%	47%	1.36	3.34	2.21	22.66	2.46	-16.6	+12.8	-53.8	+15.4

SNOOKER

Par cote favori

cote favori	n	fav%	1%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_out	roi_1	roi_2
1.00-1.25	19	74%	74%	26%	1.13	4.19	1.77	3.55	-16.7	+10.2	+30.2	-6.6
1.26-1.50	22	64%	46%	54%	1.37	2.41	1.62	2.16	-12.6	-12.4	-26.2	+17.8
1.51-1.75	5	100%	100%	0%	1.61	1.95	1.61	1.95	+61.2	-100.0	+61.2	-100.0
TOTAL	46	72%	63%	37%	1.30	3.09	1.68	2.71	-6.8	-12.6	+6.0	+0.2

Par pays

pays	n	fav%	1%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_out	roi_1	roi_2
International	42	71%	62%	38%	1.28	3.17	1.70	2.75	-8.3	-9.3	+5.4	+4.9
?	4	75%	75%	25%	1.47	2.26	1.47	2.26	+9.9	-43.5	+9.9	-43.5
TOTAL	46	72%	63%	37%	1.30	3.09	1.68	2.71	-6.8	-12.6	+6.0	+0.2

TENNIS

Par cote favori

cote favori	n	fav%	1%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_out	roi_1	roi_2
1.00-1.25	209	87%	54%	46%	1.15	5.96	3.25	3.85	+0.1	-23.0	+74.3	+78.9
1.26-1.50	315	69%	51%	49%	1.39	2.93	2.09	2.23	-4.5	-8.8	+5.9	+9.9
1.51-1.75	284	58%	46%	54%	1.62	2.21	1.92	1.92	-5.1	-8.1	-11.0	+2.7
1.76-1.99	86	43%	43%	57%	1.82	1.97	1.89	1.89	-21.9	+12.0	-18.8	+7.9
TOTAL	894	67%	49%	51%	1.45	3.32	2.29	2.48	-2.5	+8.4	+12.7	+25.6

Par pays

pays	n	fav%	1%	2%	cm_fav	cm_out	cm_1	cm_2	roi_fav	roi_out	roi_1	roi_2
ATP	442	66%	52%	48%	1.47	3.13	2.17	2.42	-3.2	+6.2	+13.5	+15.7
WTA	382	67%	46%	54%	1.44	3.46	2.40	2.50	-3.7	+14.0	+9.7	+35.4
?	70	77%	50%	50%	1.39	3.75	2.41	2.73	+6.9	-14.3	+20.3	+36.3
TOTAL	894	67%	49%	51%	1.45	3.32	2.29	2.48	-2.5	+8.4	+12.7	+25.6